Uncertainty-enabled models: input ⟶ prediction + uncertainty.
Gaussian processes (GPs) — gold standard.
— random functions with jointly Gaussian marginals.
Bayesian learning: prior GP + data = posterior GP
Prior GPs are determined by kernels (covariance functions)
— have to be positive semi-definite (PSD),
— not all kernels define "good" GPs.
This talk: defining priors / kernels.
This talk:
$$
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\mathclap{
k_{\nu, \kappa, \sigma^2}(x,x') = \sigma^2 \frac{2^{1-\nu}}{\Gamma(\nu)} \del{\sqrt{2\nu} \frac{\norm{x-x'}}{\kappa}}^\nu K_\nu \del{\sqrt{2\nu} \frac{\norm{x-x'}}{\kappa}}
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\mathclap{
k_{\infty, \kappa, \sigma^2}(x,x') = \sigma^2 \exp\del{-\frac{\norm{x-x'}^2}{2\kappa^2}}
}
}
$$
$\sigma^2$: variance
$\kappa$: length scale
$\nu$: smoothness
$\nu\to\infty$: RBF kernel (Gaussian, Heat, Diffusion)
$\nu = 1/2$
$\nu = 3/2$
$\nu = 5/2$
$\nu = \infty$
$$ k_{\infty, \kappa, \sigma^2}(x,x') = \sigma^2\exp\del{-\frac{|x - x'|^2}{2\kappa^2}} $$
$$ k_{\infty, \kappa, \sigma^2}^{(d)}(x,x') = \sigma^2\exp\del{-\frac{d(x,x')^2}{2\kappa^2}} $$
Manifolds: not PSD for some $\kappa$ unless the manifold is isometric to $\mathbb{R}^d$.
Feragen et al. (CVPR 2015).
Symmetric spaces (incl. compact Lie groups): not PSD for all $\kappa$ unless isometric to $\mathbb{R}^d$.
Da Costa et al. (SIAM JMDS 2025).
The solution is a Gaussian process with kernel $$ \htmlData{fragment-index=2,class=fragment}{ k_{\nu, \kappa, \sigma^2}(x,x') = \frac{\sigma^2}{C_{\nu, \kappa}} \sum_{n=0}^\infty \Phi_{\nu, \kappa}(\lambda_n) f_n(x) f_n(x') } $$
Mesh the manifold, consider the discretized Laplace–Beltrami (a matrix).
Compact Lie groups and homogeneous spaces:
$\lambda_n, f_n$ are connected to representation theory of the group of symmetries.
$$ \begin{aligned} \htmlData{fragment-index=1,class=fragment}{k(x,y)} &\htmlData{fragment-index=2,class=fragment}{ = \frac{\sigma^2}{C_{\nu, \kappa}} \sum_{n=0}^\infty \Phi_{\nu, \kappa}(\lambda_n) f_n(x) \mathrlap{f_n(y)} \htmlData{fragment-index=3,class=fragment}{ \obr{\phantom{f_n(y)}}{\hspace{-0.5cm}\text{spherical harmonics}\hspace{-0.5cm}} } } \\ &\htmlData{fragment-index=4,class=fragment}{= \frac{\sigma^2}{C_{\nu, \kappa}} \sum_{n=0}^\infty \Phi_{\nu, \kappa}(\lambda_n) \mathrlap{\del{\sum_{k=1}^{d_n} f_{n, k}(x) f_{n, k}(y)}} \htmlData{fragment-index=5,class=fragment}{ \ubr{\phantom{\del{\sum_{k=1}^{d_n} f_{n, k}(x) f_{n, k}(y)}}}{\hspace{-0.7cm} C_{n, d} \cdot \phi_{n, d}(x, y) \text{ --- zonal spherical harmonics}\hspace{-0.7cm}} } } \end{aligned} $$
The last equation
Gaussian process $f$ — random function with jointly Gaussian marginals.
Characterized by
Notation: $f \~ \f{GP}(m, k)$.
The kernel $k$ must be positive (semi-)definite.
Takes
giving the posterior (conditional) Gaussian process $\f{GP}(\hat{m}, \hat{k})$.
The functions $\hat{m}$ and $\hat{k}$ may be explicitly expressed in terms of $m$ and $k$.
$$ \htmlData{fragment-index=0,class=fragment}{ x_0 } \qquad \htmlData{fragment-index=1,class=fragment}{ x_1 = x_0 + f(x_0)\Delta t } \qquad \htmlData{fragment-index=2,class=fragment}{ x_2 = x_1 + f(x_1)\Delta t } \qquad \htmlData{fragment-index=3,class=fragment}{ .. } $$
$$ x_0 \qquad x_1 = x_0 + f(x_0)\Delta t \qquad x_2 = x_1 + f(x_1)\Delta t \qquad .. $$
assume $f$ unknown, model $f$ as a GP.
$$ x_0 \qquad x_1 = x_0 + f(x_0)\Delta t \qquad x_2 = x_1 + f(x_1)\Delta t \qquad .. $$
Phase portrait is periodic!
I.e. the state space is actually a cylinder!
Circle
(Lie group)
Sphere
(homogeneous space)
Dragon
(general manifold)
Zonal spherical harmonics satisfy reproducing property:
$$ \begin{aligned} \htmlData{class=fragment}{ \phi_{n, d}(x, y) } & \htmlData{class=fragment}{ = C_{n, d} \int_{\mathbb{S^n}} \phi_{n, d}(x, u) \phi_{n, d}(y, u) d u } \\ & \htmlData{class=fragment}{ \approx \frac{C_{n, d}}{L} \sum_{l=1}^L \phi_{n, d}(x, u_l) \phi_{n, d}(y, u_l), } && \htmlData{class=fragment}{ u_l \stackrel{\text{i.i.d.}}{\sim} \mathrm{U}(\mathbb{S}_n). } \end{aligned} $$Hence $\sqrt{C_{n, d}/L} \cdot \phi_{n, d}(x, \v{u})$ forms an approximate feature transform.
This enables efficient sampling without knowing $f_n$. And this generalizes!
Take stationary $k$. Assume for simplicity $k(x, x) = 1$. Then
$$ \htmlData{data-id=rffformula,class=fragment}{ \begin{aligned} k(x, x') &= \int_{\R^d} S(\lambda) e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x - x'}{\lambda}} \d \lambda \\ & \htmlData{class=fragment}{ \approx \frac{1}{L} \sum_{l=1}^L e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x - x'}{\lambda_l}} \qquad \lambda_l \sim S(\lambda) } \end{aligned} } $$$k$ is RBF $\implies$ $S(\lambda)$ is Gaussian. $k$ is Matérn $\implies$ $S(\lambda)$ is $t$ distributed.
$k$ is RBF $\implies$ $S(\lambda)$ is Gaussian. $k$ is Matérn $\implies$ $S(\lambda)$ is $t$ distributed.
• $\pi^{(\lambda)}$ is an explicit integral.
• $c(\lambda)$ has closed form.
• $c(\lambda)^{-2} S(\lambda)$ is a non-standard, potentially unnormalized, density.
Space of positive definite matrices $\f{SPD}(2)$
Since $e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x - x'}{\lambda_l}} = e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x}{\lambda_l}} \overline{e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x'}{\lambda_l}}}$, the above is an inner product.
$$ \htmlData{class=fragment}{ f(x) \approx \frac{1}{\sqrt{L}} \sum_{l=1}^L w_l e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x}{\lambda_l}} \qquad w_l \sim \mathrm{N}(0, 1) \qquad \lambda_l \sim S(\lambda) } $$
Since $ \htmlData{fragment-index=3,class=fragment fade-out disappearing-fragment}{ e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x - x'}{\lambda_l}} } \htmlData{fragment-index=3,class=fragment fade-in appearing-fragment}{ {\color{blue}\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, x')} } \!\,= \htmlData{fragment-index=4,class=fragment fade-out disappearing-fragment}{ e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x}{\lambda_l}} \overline{e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x'}{\lambda_l}}} } \htmlData{fragment-index=4,class=fragment fade-in appearing-fragment}{ {\color{blue} \pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, ?) \overline{\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x', ?)} } } $, the above is an inner product. $ \vphantom{ e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x - x'}{\lambda_l}} {\color{blue}\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, x')} \!\,= e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x}{\lambda_l}} \overline{e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x'}{\lambda_l}}} {\color{blue} \pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, ?) \overline{\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x', ?)} } } \sout{ {\color{blue}\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, x')} = {\color{blue} \pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, ?) \overline{\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x', ?)} } } $, $ \vphantom{ e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x - x'}{\lambda_l}} {\color{blue}\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, x')} \!\,= e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x}{\lambda_l}} \overline{e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x'}{\lambda_l}}} {\color{blue} \pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, ?) \overline{\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x', ?)} } } {\color{blue}\pi^{(\lambda_l)}(x, x')} = \E_{h \sim \mu_H} e^{\innerprod{i \lambda + \rho}{\,a(h, x)}} \overline{ e^{\innerprod{i \lambda + \rho}{\,a(h, x')}} }, $ where
$$ f(x) \approx \frac{1}{\sqrt{L}} \sum_{l=1}^L w_l e^{2 \pi i \innerprod{x}{\lambda_l}} \qquad w_l \sim \mathrm{N}(0, 1) \qquad \lambda_l \sim S(\lambda) $$
• the vector $\rho$ and the function $a(\cdot, \cdot)$ are known,
• $\mu_H$ is samplabale.
• Monte Carlo approximation of the expectation $\E_{h \sim \mu_H}$ is an inner product.
Space of positive definite matrices $\f{SPD}(2)$